Waleed Malik

Waleed Malik
Birthday
December 31
Bio
2 year law student, an international student living in Toronto, Canada and an aspiring lawyer. I have many interests, most of them completely unrelated to one another. But, most of all, I love to write. That is why I am on Open Salon and would love any advice I can receive on the stuff I produce. Oh and my birthday is not December 31st. I don't know why I can't change that.

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Editor’s Pick
APRIL 25, 2011 10:06AM

The fight over America's national debt

Rate: 4 Flag

timothy-geithner

 

“The consequences would be catastrophic to the United States. Default by the United States would precipitate a crisis worse than the one we just went through. I think it would make the crisis we just went through look modest by comparison”

“It is no exaggeration to say that starting off the next generation of the next generation of families buried under debt and financial bondage to federal bankers and foreign masters, I think, is fundamentally evil for the government to do”
 
-Michele Bachmann 

michele-Bachmann-new-4-cropped-proto-custom_2

 

Personally, I don't see how anyone could seriously oppose raising the debt ceiling for the United States government, or even float the idea of not doing so as a rational possibility. Looking at the evidence, the undeniable conclusion seems to be that failing to do so would be economically disastrous, both for the United States and for the rest of the world . Most people believe that even a delay in raising the debt ceiling, the sort that seems more likely every single day as the parties continue to spar rather than negotiate on the issue, would inflict significant economic damage. Timothy Geithner has stated emphatically that he is confident that there is no way the debt ceiling will not be raised. John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives,seem to agree, stating that not raising the debt ceiling is not an option and that doing so would spell “financial disaster”.

And yet a significant element of the governing class in Washington is actively opposing what seems to be an absolute neccessity. Mostly affiliated with the the Tea Party movement, they look at this overwhelming economic evidence but then simply reject the premise that the United States government ought to be able to borrow more. They find the very idea detestable. And so the fight over the debt limit is shaping up to become an especially bitter and partisan fight  in an already bitter and partisan Washington D.C. where, somewhat bizarely, the debt is becoming one of the almost cultural fault lines that often animate American politics. 

Just consider how the two sides approach the question of raising the debt ceiling. In presenting the case for raising the debt ceiling, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner approaches the debt in the “normal” way, the way in which most economists would approach the question. That is to say his approach is almost entirely prudential. He warns that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would be harmful for the American economy, as it would most likely cause the United States to default on its obligations, causing a negative reaction from the international debt market and raising the interest rate that the government would have to pay on its debt. In other words, not raising the debt ceiling would be bad for the United States.

However, the approach of many on the right is a drastically different one. A number of them are approaching the national debt as a moral issue, the accumulation of which is a clear and egregious ethical failure on the part of the American government and people. For them the historic national debt that the United States has accumulated is morally and ethically suspect; for them having accrued and now wanting to increase it is a bad thing for the United States to do.

Most, perhaps even all, regligious and ethical systems frown upon debt. There is a sense that taking on debt, though acceptable in some circumstances, is a personal failiure, an attempt to live of or benefit from what one is not entitled to; and, given the many ways in which indebtedness can become painful for an individual and a family (as was discovered by a great many Americans during the so-called 'credit crunch') taking on debt is seen as a violation of one's obligations towards one's family members. Even when allowed, it is usually considered something that ought to be actively discouraged. In Islam, for instance, one is required to be debt free before making the pilgrimage to Mecca, one of the holiest and most important sacraments of that religion.

Christianity’s attitude to personal debt, ambivalent at best and outright hostile according to many interpretations, is well established in American culture. That is providing the impetus for many Evangelicals who are condemning the United States accumulation of a historic level of indebtedness as fundamentally immoral and contrary to basic tenants of the Bible .

For instance, speaking to an audience of Christian media leaders in Nashville, Speaker House John Boehner stated that the national debt was a “moral threat” to the United States, in addition to being a “mortal threat”. It is a sentiment reflected in Conservative America where, for instance, the debt is termed as “robbing from future generations”. Debt, it is argued, “just  eats you alive”.

For many in the Republican party, this condemnation of the debt is perhaps a tactical choice as it appeals to both fiscal hawks and religious conservatives, two core constituencies. But for some, particularly elements of the Tea Party, seem to be much more sincerely committed to this notion. For instance Michelle Bachmann, Chairwoman of the Tea Party Caucus in Congress, voted against the compromise budget bill that averted a government shutdown because it did not do enough to reduce America’s deficit and its indebtedness; for her, any compromise on this issue was a tragic failure, often a clear sign of a moral flashpoint.  In a petition against raising the debt ceiling, she calls on Congress to stop spending “cold turkey”, as if it’s some sort of substance addiction. And, most dramatically and indicatively, she calls on Americans to replicate the courage of those who fought at Iwo Jima in the current debt crisis and she and her allies fight for the liberty and the glory of the United States. When a conservative American uses a World War II allegory, you know its something they take very very seriously.  

There is almost universal consensus that a failure to raise the debt ceiling and a default by the United States on its credit obligations would be catastrophic. I doubt I could take seriously anyone arguing something different based on the evidence.

But the United States is a representative democracy and one in which the moralistic and personified approach of the right wing has far deeper resonance than any economic evidence ever could. There is little political incentive for Bachmann and her allies in the Tea Party to vote for a raise in the debt ceiling and there seems to be even less personal inclination on their part to approach the question prudentially. For them the vote on whether to raise the debt ceiling vote is not about economics, maybe not even about politics. It is a question of identity, one in which their vision of America and its status as a moral and virtuous nation is at stake. And given the hold they have over the Republican Party and the hold that party currently has on the House of Representatives, there is every reason to be afraid of the United States pushing itself and the rest of the world into a deep and painful recession.  

 

(Originally published on my blog: http://cogitations-waleed.blogspot.com/) 

 

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Lolz, yeah I've spent sometime in those places. I'm actually just about done with Carleton; graduating in June.

In terms of your point about the United States being able to pay off its creditors with tax revenue, I've actually seen that argument floated around a lot but there are a few problems with it:-

1. It would mean a cut in the government spending money in other stuff, like you said. That would a) be bad for the economy and b)would harm people dependent on those programs.

2.Also if it were to happen, I think it would be a hugely sneaky and undemocratic way for Ryan and the Republicans to force the government to adapt what they suggested it do in its budget plan.

3.The real problem with not raising the debt ceiling is that it demonstrates to the global debt market that the United States political system isn't able to guarantee that it will make the financial decisions it needs to be able to pay its debts short of being in an emergency situation; if it can't do that it loses its ability to borrow as much money it needs because it's currency is seen as a safe haven and the interest rates that the government needs to pay to lenders goes way up. Having to gut its budget because it the Washington isn't able to come to an agreement really doesn't do that.
Ascribing what must be done now relative to raising the government's borrowing limit to religious, moral, or ethical belief is like linking the sunrise to the predawn schedule of the old horse drawn milk wagons. It's ludicrous.

Sure, there are religious tenants that comment on lending money and borrowing money. Sure, there are ethical and legal considerations regarding borrowing and lending. Certainly, politicians will attempt to claim some moral high ground by linking our borrowing, and our debt, and our annual deficits, to moral and ethical considerations along with the burdens that we should not impose on future generations.

For the most part, such talk is bullshit. What will drive the outcome of the debate on raising the debt limit will be nothing more complex than the checkbook arithmetic by which we all must abide in order to avoid personal bankruptcy.

Boehner may mention that there is a “moral” aspect to our nation’s debt and annual deficit; and there is. However, he will only vote in the secular plane against the potential “mortal” consequences of not defaulting on our obligations, while trying to insure that we don’t go bankrupt in the future, without little or no thought of the religious and ethical issues at stake. Our fiscal health is so poor that it will drive all but the impending disaster from the minds of our congressional representatives.

To seek to condemn "the Right" by tagging them with this nonsense only excites the weak minded into believing that they are some sort of enemy – like the fans on the other side of the soccer pitch. This fiscal disaster in America is everyone’s fault, including voters, cowardly representatives and senators, and presidents, who all believed the empty socialist promise that one could throw trillions at societal ills and produce a beautiful society.

There is no better example of the kind of belief that got us here than LBJ. In his first State of the Union address, LBJ stated,

“This Administration today, here and now, declares unconditional war on poverty.”

Later that year, while signing the Equal Opportunities Acts, he said,

“Today, for the first time in the history of the human race, a great nation is able to make and is willing to make a commitment to eradicate poverty among it people.”

LBJ lived in a fantasy world in which he believed his Great Society would ELIMINATE poverty, not just REDUCE it.

Fortunately, the Great Society created by Lyndon Johnson failed quickly. It had to be dismantled. However, it left a legacy. It bred a new sense of dependency on the government to solve man’s troubles. It fostered a faulty belief in government's role in society. Sadly, this has cost us trillions; and is a significant component of what put us where we are today.
This piece starts out well, but your language and your conclusions become progressively more confused as you reach your conclusion.

However, the comments are even more suspect.

First of all, it is mathematically impossible to pay off the national debt without decreasing the federal budget by more than 50%.

More heinous is the idea of cutting back domestic welfare programs in order to pay foreign creditors.

You take care of your own family first. You put food on the table before you pay the mortgage.

It's that simple.

I've been analyzing the financial situation for quite some time and, while I am not ready yet to publish my conclusions, the results so far are terrifying.

Right now I am in the process of analyzing Obama's budget proposals and their estimation of the long term results of his budget solution. The solution doesn't hold water.

Ryan is right to the extent that not increasing the debt ceiling does not equal default.

The question is whether we want to deny people the benefits they have paid for.

Social security is fully funded by payroll deducti0ns. No other tax money has ever been used to fund the benefits paid out by the social security system. Not one penny.

Whenever people talk glibly about cutting Social Security, they are blithely recommending that we shatter the social contract between the people and the government.

The federal government has literally stolen the social security payments deducted from the nation's paychecks. Now, faced by the necessity of repaying that money, conservatives want to steal it again by reducing payments to which social security retirees are entitled by virtue of the fact that they have paid into the fund.

The constant repetition of the false concept that Social Security is insolvent is part of the Big Lie the conservatives are using to strangle the government that they want to dismantle.

This is a sickness. Quoting scripture to the effect that most religions frown on going into debt belies the actual teachings of the faiths. The concept of alms giving is nothing other than a social tax. In fact, in Islam, non-Muslims must pay a special tax, which goes into the coffers of the government and for which the taxed get nothing in return.

There are many sufi stories that describe how sufi masters have gone into debt for one good reason or another.

The truth is that without debt we would not have the civilization we have today. All business requires capital. All businesses require start-up capital. Sometimes they float stocks. Sometimes they borrow the money from the bank. These stocks and mortgages constitute debt.

Without debt we would still be living in the middle ages.
These two numbers put the problem into perspective.

The annualized growth in the GDP has averaged 3.2% from 1950 to 2010.

During that same period of time, inflation has increased by 380%.

There are no possible combinations of budget cuts and tax increases that can compensate for a 380% loss in real value.

In 1950, gasoline was .27 a gallon. Today, a gallon of gasoline costs $3.87, which is a 1446% increase in non-adjusted dollars.

If you use those misleading 2005 dollars, then the increase comes to just 182%, but those constant dollars are designed to discount the cost of inflation, and that's precisely what we want to measure so any summary that uses adjusted dollars to calculate inflation is misleading and begs the question.
We're in fiscal disorder because of Republican "conservative" borrowing/spending and reductions in revenues, all chasing what has been proven to be a fantasy ideology. Sure, they have excuses for why the obviousness of their fiscal idiocy isn't to blame, and excuses to back up those excuses and, failing that, a collective case of amnesia.

The most obtuse invent the fairy tale of LBJ and FDR causing, I guess, the "conservatives" to slash revenues and jack up spending and borrowing. While its admirable that they have such a strong belief in the failed ideology that they will fabricate any excuse in defending it, they're really just simpletons without a clue.

The same Republicans who, just a short few years ago, defended exploding debt as a "small percentage of GDP" and even went so far as to claim there MUST be Federal Debt, as it's a good thing--and raised the debt ceiling several times to accommodate their fiscal incompetence...are now screaming about the mess they left and pointing to anyone or anything else as the cause.

The solution to the debt problem has to be found, and hopefully wiser heads will prevail. However, the one thing America doesn't need is more advice from the "conservatives." Arsonists, generally speaking, aren't the ones to ask about how to put out the fire. Our "conservative" arsonists sure took a lot of ideological joy throwing gas on this one for the last 30 years.

Of course, the federal debt isn't the only example of "conservatives" burdening America with debt, as deregulation has added more debt to the red ink as their credit bubbles blew and blew up, and as mergers and regulatory capture cause overcharging.

Simply put, let's move towards solving this problem, but leave the "conservatives" out of the conversation. We need people who actually put America first, not their idiotic, failed and destructive ideology.

The only accomplishment of "conservatism" is to prove it is superior to communism. The commies spent 70 years trying to destroy the American economy -- conservatives did it in 30. Take THAT, Chairman Mao!
Gee, I'd say something to discredit you Ion, but my efforts would be seen as inferior to your mental case self immolation.
I'm pretty good at dismantling half-wit hack ideologues, so consider that a compliment.
Thanks, and you're welcome.
Paul, did Onanist Fumidor really just call you a femiNazi? Oh my goodness, what an astute come-back, what an unanswerable rebuke! I guess such epithets - and his earlier explanation of Tea Party motivations regarding the debt ceiling, as if the Tea Party is capable of thinking strategically about economic matters or anything else - are fairly typical of what passes for conservative "thought" these days, though it does leave me wondering: where's the beef?
Well, Dems have the executive branch and, contrary to popular belief, still have half the legislative branch as well. The last few days I've been watching town hall meetings wherein Paul Ryan and congressmen who voted for his budget are taking a lot of heat from their constituents, so last year's gains by Tea Party know-nothings may well prove unrepeatable and in fact reversable in 2012. These things tend to play out in cycles, and the Tea Party's time in the limelight may soon be coming to a well-deserved and unlamented end.
nanatehay,
Your charge that Ionian is an Onanist is without foundation, as it assumes there's something to play with. Granted, if he has a piano, he could be a pianist, but that doesn't mean he has what it takes to be an Onanist. Pianist sounds the same, almost, so yours is an honest confusion.

Be careful. Ionian may be setting a trap, luring you in with his idiot side so he can hit you with the savant part!
There's no question, nothing short of tax increases and large budget cuts are what's necessary. So far neither side has shown a willingness to have an adult conversation on these matters. The GOP claims we can do it by CUTTING taxes and eviscerating social security and Medicare while the Dems try to imply tax increases on the rich coupled with fairly minor spending cuts will get the job done. Both sides are wrong.
Paul, it's always best to keep one's pianist out of a fumarole.
And regarding the budget, it may be enlightening to ask ourselves "When was the last time we had a balanced budget? Did that occur under a Democratic or Republican administration? How was it achieved?" I think the answers to those questions, if looked at in a purely pragmatic as opposed to ideological manner, can tell us a lot.
One further question about the last time we had a balanced budget: What, pray tell, happened to the poor thing?
Warp drive is just around the corner, I saw a story on Wired about how Steve Jobs is going to incorporate it into the next iPad.
A commenter above inspires me to add a couple of notes:

First, it is well settled law that no American is entitled to the benefits for which they believe they are paying. Paying under FICA for 30 years, for example, is no guarantee that you will receive an OASDI benefit of any kind, even if there are funds to distribute. Just go ask the Supreme Court.

Second, you don't have to wander any farther than the official SSA site to discover the current and predicted state of Social Security. The current predictions are that it will likely cease (forevermore) to collect more than it disburses this decade and that it will be unable to pay all of its benefits (meaning it will be insolvent) by 2037. All this, of course, if nothing is changed.

Third, it is a muddle-headed conclusion to state that the federal budget must be decreased by 50% to pay off the national debt. Someone doesn't understand the budget.

Presuming that this false conclusion is one which refers to decreasing expenses, (i.e., reducing the federal budget is a vague and practically meaningless expression because the budget consists of at least two components, one for collections and one for outlays) simply balancing the budget for the next 30 years will pay off the national debt.

Why is this?

Two reasons: First, the federal budget includes all expenses associated with the instruments of America's national debt, including all interest and principal repayment obligations. Second, America rarely issues debt intruments whose maturities are longer than 30 years.

Hence, BALANCING the budget now, and for the next 30 years automatically discharges the entirety of our national debt. However, neither Ryan's nor Obama's plans envision balancing the budget in the near-term future. Nor is the recent FY12 budget approved by the House balanced.

Even today the federal government spends about $3.8 trillion annually. We borrow (our deficit) of about $1.5 trillion each year. To balance even this disaster "only" takes cutting expenses by 39%, for those rocket scientists astute enough to compute this ratio. In general, during better economic times with fewer wars, our annual deficits are not even this big.

Fourth and finally, it really isn't rocket science. The budget isn't much more difficult to understand than one's own checkbook, and neither are the consequences if you don't balance.
Ok so a lot of stuff has been said above and I don't have time to engage with all of that. But just one thing in regards to person who commented just above me: while its arithmetically true to an extent that all you have to do to balance the budget is cut 39 percent or so (well I assume it is, I didn't double check or run the math), I really don't think thats the debate people are having. The question is how to balance the budget: whether and what taxes should be increased and what benefits should be cut. A second element is of how quickly should that deficit be cut. So while it isn't rocket science to run the math you did, that is really not the reason why theres no agreement about it.
Gee whiz, Captain Balance, you mean it's that simple?

Just start balancing the budget and there will be no consequence as it's a simple linear concept, like an individual's checkbook? Removing vast swaths of Social Security and Medicare spending from the economy will have no effect on activity, therefore revenue? Reducing spending and jobs in an economy already stripped of over a trillion dollars of activity will not be a factor? Money knows that if it's government spending, there is no multiplier effect? Damn, that's some smart cash!
Yup, just balance that ol' budget and you can count on a steady level of tax revenue...and the jobs fairy will appear...and all will be well...and you can even accurately predict when the debt will be retired!

Forget everything you thought you knew about economic inter-connectivity, Uncle Chris has shown us the way. The whole science of economics is a fraud! A 3rd grader could correct our economic problems with a piece of scratch paper.

Really, Chris, I can see why you blame conservative fiscal stupidity and massive debt on social spending that didn't cause the it, but to reduce macroeconomics to simple math? Adam Smith should slap you with his Invisible Hand.

We have a spending, revenue and overall dysfunctional economy problem, and it's all interrelated. Thinking of the solution as applying checkbook math is simplistic, and something only a simpleton would believe. For an ideologue, though, the simple idea is very provocative and arousing. I think you're stroking while reciting your budget fantasy.

Thus the true Onanist reveals himself...
Waleed,

Clearly you will be correct. Once balancing the budget is established as a pre-condition for budget negotiations, or debt limit raising, then the debate will center on what to cut, and how much of it to cut. That, frankly, is obvious to the most casual prognosticator.

In my view, until the context of balancing the budget is established for such debates, no serious discussions, much less actions, will be taken to cut expenses. This, of course, leaves open whether taxes will be raised to help balance the budget. In this latter area, we can be grateful for the Tea Party.

The budget apparently will not be balanced for FY12. Hence, our national debt will increase next year. For the sake of clarity, if our FY13 budget is not balanced, then we will have to increase our national debt again.

However, for every year we are able to balance our budget, we will not have to increase our national debt by borrowing to fund the activities of our federal government. Thus, when we plan on balancing our budget is highly relevant to the debate about how much to raise the federal borrowing authority.

To repeat my difficulty with your post: It is both incorrect and counterproductive to cast the nature of these debates as an ‘us’ versus ‘them’, shallow, partisan shouting match. One side is not correctly described as a group invoking moral and ethical precepts to bolster its condemnation of government borrowing. The other side is not correctly described as a well-motivated group who wishes to continue throwing federal trillions at America’s social problems.

As you suggest in your comment, but not in your post, this will be a debate based upon the practical, secular, issues of raising revenues and cutting expenses to eliminate an annual federal deficit with some consistency. It won’t be a debate about a Great Society. It won’t be a debate about the morals and ethics of borrowing, lending, or accumulating debt. It won’t be a debate of the role of the federal government in job creation. It will primarily be a debate about how we extricate ourselves from 2.3 – 3.8 = - 1.5.

The time at which this debate will occur will be a function of the collective courage of Congress and the imminence as will as the magnitude of the next financial disaster.

Chris
I absolutely think that ideology is going to play an important part in this fight as much as any other in the United States. There are a number of "ideological" reasons why someone would value an approach favoring tax increases over spending cuts or the role one would want the federal government playing in the future. And both sides have their ideologies, I never meant to suggest that only one did. And all of those will play a role in determining what positions all of the stakeholders will be taking and what the final outcome will be. Because the fact is that its one thing to point out what the math is and what it ought to be. But the fact is that there are a number of different visions on what it ought to be and a number of different visions on how to get there and thats why ideologies come in to the equation.
Chris,
The point you miss is that simply balancing the budget, no matter in what way, will only increase the debt. Less so if defense were cut, more so if medicare and SS, etc, are cut. The difference is the social spending cycles through the economy from the bottom up, mostly.

That is why your idea cannot be taken seriously. It's as simplistic as it is wrong. The debt will only increase as long as we have high unemployment, and has to have an artificial kick to get moving. Trying to prove a failed ideology only causes more problems, as ideologies cannot address reality that doesn't align with dogma. Ideology -- in this case yours -- is what got us to this sad point.

We have, and in this order of importance a 1. economy problem 2. revenue problem 3. spending problem. They can only be repaired in that order, beginning with stimulating demand. Your idea is bass-ackwards, won't work, hasn't worked yet, and never will. The only result is a depleted country with a crappy economic profile...but a balanced budget...a very small, weakened country balanced budget.
Waleed,

No budget debate in America will be successful if it is cast primarily in the form of a battle of ideologies. A debate between a ‘Republican’ plan versus a ‘Democratic’ plan will fail to produce the required results. Similarly, debates between ‘Conservative’ and ‘Liberal’ plans, between ‘Progressive’ and ‘Tea Party’ plans, and between ‘Rich’ and ‘Poor’ plans will fail.

It isn’t that ideologies won’t be involved to some extent in a successful debate – one that produces a financial plan to extricate America out of its impending financial meltdown. It is that a successful debate will center on my point and my hope that the impending crisis will focus the discussion on checkbook arithmetic much more than on any other aspect of the arguments to balance the budget.

Hence, it won’t be a debate about a ‘Great Society’. It won’t be a debate about the morals and ethics of borrowing, lending, or accumulating debt. It won’t be a debate of the role of the federal government in job creation. A successful budget debate will primarily be a debate about how we extricate ourselves from 2.3 – 3.8 = - 1.5.

All of this falls into my general observation that in a crisis, even the obtuse know what to do.

You don't appear to have a dog in this fight. Consequently, your interest in these matters, along with the possession of some information are appreciated. You have in this chat much of what my fellow citizens do not.

Perhaps a look back at what competing ideologies have done for the peace and tranquility of your home country will convince you that more constructive results can be achieved through more dispassionate, reasoned, objective debate. Of course, both you and I might argue that without idealogical differences America would still be part of England and Pakistan would still be part of India. However, in making these observations one could also conclude that ideoligical discussions lead to division; and that is NOT what is needed in any debate about America's federal budget.

Thanks for responding. I appreciate your post even though I disagree with its main themes.
Paul,

I won't use Waleed's space to respond to what substance exists in your comment to me, despite the fact that its first sentence is absolutely (your favorite word), mathematically, incorrect -- as are most of your other thoughts.

I will, however, express my appreciation for my apparent promotion, in your opinion, from masturbatory idiot to simpleton. This, along with a reduction in the explicit name calling in which you normally indulge, lets some of your "rich intellect" show. It's this part that I appreciate far more than my elevation to a higher form of intellectual life.

In the meantime, keep up the effort to promote the Socialist/Progressive cause. We all learn much when you attempt to make a case for the government taking all of our money and redistributing it to those more needy than the average taxpayer, be it a personal or business entity.
Chris,
Thank you for your "I'd offer a searing rebuttal to your comment, but it's time for my nap" response. Once again you have spared me your keen wit and grasp of the issues, a favor you have bestowed upon me and all others since your arrival on these pixel-pages.

Usually, I like admissions of inability and inferiority to more directly express submissiveness and proper humility. However, you also aren't accomplished at being able to disguise your retreat as a charge, so the message sails through unimpeded.

So, all things considered, I am pleased with your subtle admission of inadequacy. It's not like I expect you to actually admit you don't know what the hell you're talking about.