If I were President Obama’s internal pollster, I would automatically downgrade his boss’ lead to keep his head in the game. In my mind the only thing that can bring down President Obama in his fight for reelection is overconfidence. The demographic/electoral roadmap for any national election candidate is so formidable; that I find it hard to see how any Republican touting a Tea Party gravitas can win. In 2008, I wrote that Obama’s Coalition was “Browner, Younger and Smarter”. The “brown” part matters big time. Despite the one time proactive and visionary efforts by former President Bush and his former rival John McCain, and Lindsey Graham the migration of the Republican Party has been non-stop. So it begs the question, how can any Republican overcome hemorrhaging within this country’s most expanding segment?
What President Obama has done is unleashed a powerful “bloc by bloc” strategy to cement his relationship with key components of his 2008 constituency. His private message to his base has been “look, these guys have fought me tooth and nail just to get what “we” gained. If I lose they are taking all that back. So Barack gave the gay and lesbian community “Don’t ask don’ t tell. He gave the "greens “historic” legislation in emission standards, he gave the progressives at least a modicum of their requests in health care and financial reform and ending the two costly wars. He saved the auto union, and breathed life in a portion of the Dream Act. As the first black President, save for a legion of naysayers, Mr. Obama is still the “Truth”.
So bloc, by bloc President Obama has given his base something to hold on to, plus promoting the fears of possible intrusions on rights, and reversals of policy. Now that Mitt Romney has allowed Paul Ryan’s selection to shift to a wider, more futuristic path, President Obama can suggest that the Ryan/GOP Budget has hidden traps to decimate the middle class. Opps there goes, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Opps their goes Florida and Colorado. Obama’s bloc by bloc strategies understands that people look have seen the job numbers, don’t like them, but they also recognize, at least at the intellectual level, that the GOP owns those job numbers too. I was reminded that independent analysis suggested that the American Jobs Act, blocked by Republicans in Congress would have added nearly 2 million jobs.
Team Obama will surely add this riff to his bloc party. As long as Mr. Obama needs to fight, he will however it appears that, he drifts when he thinks the battle is over. Mr. Pollster, keep your guy awake – he has a bloc party to attend.