Newt Gingrich will be the Republican nominee for president. Why? Because Mitt Romney is a Mormon, and the GOP primary/caucus schedule favors a non-Mormon candidate.
White Evangelical Christians are perhaps the strongest, most loyal constituency of the Republican Party. That is Romney’s greatest obstacle to the nomination. In a Pew poll conducted just before Thanksgiving, two-thirds of Evangelical Christians expressed the belief that Mormonism is not a Christian religion. In other polls, a significant majority of Evangelicals consistently express doubts that they would vote for a non-Christian for president.
Romney = Mormon = non-Christian
That same Pew poll, conducted shortly before Herman Cain’s implosion, showed the pizza godfather leading nationally among Evangelical Republicans at 26%. Newt Gingrich came next at 19%, followed by Romney with just 17%. Now that Cain is out of the race, his supporters must choose a new candidate. Many will move to second tier candidates like Michele Bachmann or Ron Paul. One can surmise, however, that a large percentage will select one of the two current front-runners. The Pew poll strongly suggests Gingrich will get far more former Cain supporters than Romney.
Now consider the primary/caucus schedule:
Jan. 3: Iowa
Jan. 10: New Hampshire
Jan. 21: South Carolina
Jan. 31: Florida
Feb. 4: Nevada
Feb. 7: Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri
Feb. 11: Maine
Feb. 28: Arizona, Michigan
Mar. 3: Washington
Mar. 6: Super Tuesday – Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
If the race has not been decided by Super Tuesday, it will certainly be decided on that date. The primaries that follow Super Tuesday will play no role in the selection of a candidate.
I believe Gingrich will win Iowa rather convincingly. Evangelicals are an important part of the GOP base there. I also believe Romney will finish in 3rd or 4th place in Iowa. New Hampshire will go to Romney, but that race will probably be fairly close as Gingrich benefits from his Iowa win. Next comes South Carolina, another state where Gingrich will likely finish strong. As we come to Florida’s Jan. 31 primary, most of the second tier candidates will have left the race. Romney and Gingrich will be the two front runners, and there might be a few secondary candidates like Ron Paul who will hang on to the very end but will play no significant role in the outcome. Romney will be trailing Gingrich in pledged delegates, and also in national polls, as Gingrich benefits from the bandwagon effect of his delegate lead. It will be absolutely imperative that Romney win Florida. Florida has a huge delegate count, and a win there will show that Romney’s presidential bid is still serious. If he loses Florida, Romney’s candidacy is effectively over.
Florida will be a fascinating contest. The northern part of that state strongly resembles Gingrich’s home state of Georgia. It is very much a region of the Deep South, with a strong Evangelical presence. The southern part of the state is dominated by ethnic Cubans and retirees. If Romney can draw the support of those two groups, he can win Florida. That is a big “if”, however, since by then the Gingrich train might be moving with such momentum that it cannot be stopped.
If Romney does win Florida, the race is temporarily up for grabs. Romney would likely win Nevada, where Evangelicals are relatively few, and Mormons a strong presence among the religiously inclined. With two Romney wins in row, the race would be wide open until Super Tuesday. Romney and Gingrich would likely split the contests that occur between Nevada’s caucus and Super Tuesday. Unfortunately for Romney, Super Tuesday favors Gingrich. The Georgian would almost certainly take Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. Only a few of the other states are sure bets for Romney, such as Massachusetts and Vermont. These two states, however, cannot match the delegate total for the lock that Gingrich will have on the other states.
It really does come down to religion in the GOP race. As I have written previously, it is surprising to me that Gingrich would attract strong Evangelical support. Indeed, it appears Evangelicals have been wandering the wilderness trying to identify “their” candidate, and until recently Gingrich was not high on that list. That explains the rapid rise and fall of candidates such as Bachmann, Perry, and Cain. When the preferred candidate falters, Evangelicals move on to someone else. Fortunately for Gingrich, they have run out of other options, assuming someone like Rick Santorum does not rise like a phoenix to take attention away from Gingrich.
I really don’t see much hope for Romney at this stage. Having never risen above 30% in GOP support, the “anyone but Romney” candidate will likely win. At this point in the race, that candidate looks like Newt Gingrich.
Of course, I may be proven embarrassingly wrong by this time next month!
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Informative piece, by the way. I look foward to seeing how this plays out. Rated.
rwnj, I'll bet a lot of conservatives may think that, but when push comes to shove, they'll gladly support him against Obama. I actually think Gingrich would be a formidable candidate, and Democrats who think otherwise may find themselves very surprised next autumn.
When we vote presidents into office premised upon their personal positions & lifestyles, we're doing ourselves an injustice.
I don't care if our next POTUS is an alien from another cosmos. I want somebody who leads our country by setting standards of excellence aspiring leaders use when sustaining
when sustaining pragmatic economical intervention models that're geared toward reformation of our infrastructure, with minimal expenditures on overlapping governmental programs where billions/trillions are lost due to financial malfeasance.
Steve, you may be right, but I think the timing of the primaries and caucuses give Gingrich a big head start, because Iowa and SC will definitely be impacted by the religion factor. The question to me is just how many Florida voters will be likewise swayed by religion. You may prove me wrong, but in this race the anti-Romney sentiment is so strong I don't think he can overcome it unless he pulls a real upset early on, like in Iowa or SC, or Gingrich implodes.
Belinda, a lot of voters, especially those who go to church regularly, will strongly disagree with you.
Your analysis is more insightful than that of the Sunday morning talking heads.
1st - I agree, Romney cant do it, even if every other candidate implodes. Too much baggage, starting with his choice of religious flavors, and working through his time as Mass. governor and his previous (job-destroying) period in the private sector.
In the end, what will happen is for the first time since Dewey won at the convention in '48, the Rs will be conflicted. And they will turn to a candidate that doesnt run the primary gauntlet - Jeb Bush.
Before you choke on that prediction, let me just ask - "What choice will they have?" For all the "values voters" not one candidate is acceptable. Mostly because none of them are pure enough. Changes of positions, infidelity, strange religions etc, no one is clean enough. There will be no enthusiasm and so, in an attempt to "save the party" from its own enforced idealogical wilderness, they will turn to the Bush daddy and mommy wanted in the White House in 2000.
And then, God help us all.
http://www.staples.com/product_606396
Tim4change, that would certainly make for an interesting election!
John, I certainly hope Obama wouldn't rest on his laurels and think Gingrich would be an easy pushover. I don't think he would be.
Leapin Larry, ya got me chucklin'!
Bernadine, I don't think a well-oiled organization will help much after Florida. He'd have to win decisively on Super Tuesday, taking several southern states, something I don't think he can do.
Miguela, if Gingrich is the nominee, I predict he will do far better than most liberals and Democrats seem to think. Whether or not what he spouts is nonsense, he SOUNDS like he knows what he's talking about, and the pundits won't call him out on it.
Gingrich's problem is he's fat, ugly, and fatuous--forget about his adultery and hypocrisy. You're reading the headlines with rationality and that makes you an outsider to the way Republicans think when their dominence is threatened.
Better to confront liberals with their disloyalty and childish rejection of the democratic process.
Personally I don't care if the GOP nominates Romney or Gingrich, and it will be one of the two. All I care is that Obama is not in front of the Capital on January 20, 2013. Little else matters Republicans, many independents, and former Obama voters who bought the "sizzle" but found out there was no "steak."
A bit off the thread topic, but since we are discussing "religion in politics", just a reminder about the religiosity of our President...
Extract from Christmas Tree Lighting
December 1, 2011
"More than 2,000 years ago, a child was born to two faithful travelers who could find rest only in a stable, among the cattle and the sheep. But this was not just any child. Christ’s birth made the angels rejoice and attracted shepherds and kings from afar. He was a manifestation of God’s love for us. And He grew up to become a leader with a servant’s heart who taught us a message as simple as it is powerful: that we should love God, and love our neighbor as ourselves.
That teaching has come to encircle the globe. It has endured for generations. And today, it lies at the heart of my Christian faith and that of millions of Americans. No matter who we are, or where we come from, or how we worship, it’s a message that can unite all of us on this holiday season."
http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/12/01/national-christmas-tree-lighting-ceremony
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DrJQ8_vGOuI&feature=endscreen&NR=1
Or is this the real President of the United States?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6RfZU0GIlY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqncQ85Q1qA&feature=related
Don't you know man? That's all that matters in the end. The rest is all made up by geeks.
But you are correct about Evangelicals. They will very likely refrain from voting before they vote for a Mormon. To Evangelicals a Mormon is the same as a Scientologist. Unlike Catholics, Mormons are considered non Christian cultist.
The biggest issue (out of many) is that Mormons are polytheists. They believe that all Mormon men have the potential to progress to becoming a God.
It's all ridiculous, but it is a real issue.
Will be interesting.
r./
"Look, I think there is a gay and secular fascism in this country that wants to impose its will on the rest of us,
is prepared to use violence, to use harassment."
HOPE IT IS FUN AND WORTH THE WAIT. THE AGENDA, THE FASCISM, NOT THE VIOLENCE. I HATE VIOLENCE EXCEPT
THE THUNDER.
I think it is prepared to use the government
if it can get control of it.
I think that it is a very dangerous threat
to anybody who believes in traditional religion.
GO I HOPE SO.
And I think if you believe in historic Christianity,
you have to confront the fact.
And, frank— for that matter, if you believe in the historic version of Islam
or the historic version of Judaism,
you have to confront the reality
that these secular extremists are determined to
impose on you acceptance of a series of values that are antithetical, they're the opposite, of what you're taught in Sunday school.
The O'Reilly Factor, Fox News, 2008-11-15
HISTORY IS WRITTEN BY THE WINNERS, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. LUCKILY THE BIGGEST LOSER, JESUS,
KEPT HIS F-ING MOUTH SHUT.
ALSO SO DID, UH, BUDDHA.
AND THAT OTHER GUY,
THE IDIOT BARTENDER WHO SERVED A MINOR
A GLASS OF THE HARD STUFF.
U=THAT MINOR, ASSHOLE.
"Look, I think there is a gay and secular fascism in this country that wants to impose its will on the rest of us,
is prepared to use violence, to use harassment."
HOPE IT IS FUN AND WORTH THE WAIT. THE AGENDA, THE FASCISM, NOT THE VIOLENCE. I HATE VIOLENCE EXCEPT
THE THUNDER.
I think it is prepared to use the government
if it can get control of it.
I think that it is a very dangerous threat
to anybody who believes in traditional religion.
GO I HOPE SO.
And I think if you believe in historic Christianity,
you have to confront the fact.
And, frank— for that matter, if you believe in the historic version of Islam
or the historic version of Judaism,
you have to confront the reality
that these secular extremists are determined to
impose on you acceptance of a series of values that are antithetical, they're the opposite, of what you're taught in Sunday school.
The O'Reilly Factor, Fox News, 2008-11-15
HISTORY IS WRITTEN BY THE WINNERS, EVERYONE KNOWS THAT. LUCKILY THE BIGGEST LOSER, JESUS,
KEPT HIS F-ING MOUTH SHUT.
ALSO SO DID, UH, BUDDHA.
AND THAT OTHER GUY,
THE IDIOT BARTENDER WHO SERVED A MINOR
A GLASS OF THE HARD STUFF.
U=THAT MINOR, ASSHOLE.
sorry.
9/11/
9/12.
Uh, serendipity. Or chance. Or random shit.
History.
It aint for the squeamish.
John B., wouldn't that be entertaining!
d white, he certainly isn't. But they'll vote for him anyway.
Ben Sen, of course the Republicans would vote for Romney if he gets the nomination. I just don't think he'll get that far. But he does have good hair, and that helps.
Joe Zollo, my guess is that a good 30-40% of the active GOP base, those who will vote in caucuses and primaries, are Evangelicals, and I think that given the choice between a Mormon and a more traditional Christian denomination, a strong majority will vote for the guy who is not Mormon, especially in the South and parts of the Midwest. The early primary/caucus states are skewed to those kinds of states. My hunch, and it really is just that, is there are enough people of that mindset to doom Romney. Plus, there are a lot of others who just don't like him no matter his religion.
al loomis, Evangelical Republicans will be only too eager to forgive Gingrich his sins as long as he is contrite and appears to be faithful to his current wife. One of the main facets of born again Christians is the belief that we are all sinners, and that we can be redeemed. I think Republican Evangelicals want to believe Gingrich has asked for God's forgiveness and has been redeemed.
onislandtime, I think you and I are in agreement.
Martyshusband, yeah, some will have a hard time with Gingrich's adultery, but they will vote for him with the hope that he has turned a new leaf. A little contrition on Gingrich's part will play real well.
jimmymac, I'd agree with you that Gingrich could fade just like Perry et. al., except time is running out. Iowa is in just 4 weeks, and there's no one else really besides Romney (Paul and Santorum are stuck where they are, and Huntsman, the most sane of the bunch, doesn't stand a ghost's chance).
J.M. Emmerling, there are millions of Republican voters who will absolutely love the quote you gave from O'Reilly. They think that shows depth, understanding, and wisdom. The thing that makes Gingrich a formidable candidate is the absolute certainty he displays on even the most nonsensical stuff. He APPEARS to know what he's talking about, and the mass of uninformed Americans will eat that up, especially when he espouses American exceptionalism and the dangers we confront from the evil outside world. He's a demagogue, but demagoguery can be very effective.
It's only in the last couple of weeks that Newt has emerged as the latest non-Romney frontrunner. That is bringing renewed attention to his checkered past and a sudden collapse can't be ruled out.
Less Newt is more Newt, and more Newt is less Newt.
The closer he gets, the worse he looks. The closer he gets, the more people focus on his "inelectability," which moves him away. The closer he gets, the more his numerous skeletons become his running mates.
In the Hell's Kitchen meets Apprentice reality show the GOP race has become, wiser heads will point out the sponsors aren't too keen on Newt and *try* to convince the base to settle for the Candidate From Central Casting.
But it may do no good if there's too much Newtmentum.
Still too early to call, IMO, but Newt is still the morning line favorite...today.
The Obama people would like nothing more than Gingrich. Obama is Ward Cleaver next to Newt.
In any weather, he'd stomp down the street in his rigid, determined gait, the very sort of movement lending to some credibility of one with saddened,disrespected, yet unbeaten, wives, who having served their purpose, would fear him, despite being removed by years of relief and dues paid for having bent to his want. Yes, though his large block of a head, centered by the very mouth of an otter's anus, stitched to a perfect near-smile, he'd lumber on. Here in the din of this poor light, marching in his beloved fog, we'd hear him mutter, its suppression, nearly unconscious, "Nah, Bloombug?, Jail em each and every, I say. Let them toil for their unbootstrapped porridge -- and let them eat it cold as a door knob. Work 'em in the very schools they attend, defray the cost of books and overhead -- teach them to obey most of all! Then, they won't be in the streets with the older kids, worthless bastards they surely are!"
Cain just got fired. (As opposed to fired up.) "You can't fire me, I quit." Or at least suspend.
That really does leave Huntsman out in the cold, since he's refusing to participate in the Trump debate. BUT...Trump claims Huntsman has been asking to come and kiss the ring, like all the others, but Trump just was too busy Doing Deals to accommodate him, hence the Huntsman huff. So Huntsman might still be in.
Yeah, I haven't mentioned Ron Paul.
If Jeb or Christie get in, hopefully their large and suppurating flaws will become apparent.
Speaking of suppurating, d'ya suppose Palin might jump in?
But, say you're right. Gingrich, now married for the third time, and with an attitude toward women that is essentially "you're arm candy, and I'll be trading you in by the time you hit 40" would be campaigning against a president who's been happily married to the same woman for 18 years, with two adorable kids. Who do you think is going to look like the better family man?
In this year when anger against conservative policies and politicians appears to be mounting (it's about F***ing TIME!), Gingrich has the whole Contract with America on his record. I blame him for setting the stage for the present partisan hostility and enmity back in 1994 with his Primer for Republican freshman congresspersons. Remember "Sick, pathetic traitor"? I sure do. Boy, that really enhanced bipartisan cooperation in Washington, didn't it?
After the Republicans brought the nation to the point of default this summer for the sake if ideoloical purity, Conress's current lousy polling numbers, and their totally partisan refusal to compromise on anything, how good in Newt going to look if anyone reminds the voting public of his tantrum of 1995 when he shut down the Federal government because he had to ride at the back of Air Force 1? Not so good, is my guess.
rated
I bet Newt will flame out before he rounds up enough votes to win the nomination. He has a long history of looking really good in the short term and flaming out before his latest push lasts long enough to be effective.
It's a sorry commentary on the voting process when fewer than half the states routinely decide the nomination.
The Republican nominee, in my opinion, WILL be the next president no matter who that person is. Obama is not going to win--the liberals cannot get over their dislike of him...and the middle of the political spectrum simply cannot get him over the hump.
The Republicans WILL rally around whomever their process produces. The Democrats will not.
If Gingrich gets the nomination...our country and the chances of any progressive agenda are dead.
Two things I've learned about political forecasting:
1) the further into the future the predicted event, the exponentially greater the odds of something derailing it.
2) A year is like a decade in politics. So the weirder the prediction, the more time it needs to play out.
Your prediction is well-reasoned, so it falls more under the "Chaos Theory" - #1.
Don't be embarrassed if you're wrong.
On the morning of Election Day 2010, Nate Silver had Sharon Angle as 80% chance favorite to unseat Harry Reid and pulling away.
(Plus, if you become wrong about Newt by this time next month, it'll likely be because of something said or done by Newt himself.)
More importantly, I believe Christians will reject Romney when they find out about the 'holy underwear' that Mormons wear to keep away demons and provide physical protection. I can already hear SNL talking about the Holy Underwear.
Roger, that's a bet I won't mind losing. You're on!
William Norris, maybe he should use as one of his qualifications the fact (we presume) that he never beat his any of his wives.
grif, I have a hard time imagining in this era that a party would ignore the primaries and pick someone in the smoke filled room. But it would certainly make for some good drama, and might even increase voter turnout.
olblugill, I hope you're correct.
Rick, I'm never astounded at the hypocrisy of politicians.
Myriad, I like the reality show metaphor. And no, I don't think Palin will enter. She's got too sweet a deal right now.
Shiral, I also hold Newt to blame for a big part of our poisoned political atmosphere. Of course, that is a plus for him among many Republican voters. And he does not need to stay on top for 6 months, just about 2 and a half, to carry him to Super Tuesday. He'll have Iowa and South Carolina to support him in the interim.
Ralph, what would I ever do with millions? Oh yeah, I'd probably take a trip to Alaska, and a few other places on my bucket list.
Malusinka, if Newt's surge had come two months ago, I'd agree with you. But the timing of his surge, as opposed to those of previous front runners, is very fortuitous for him. You're correct about the absurdity of having just a few states determine our elections.
Frank, I hope you're wrong, but you may be right. I think it is a HUGE mistake for liberals/progressives to write Gingrich off as being a pushover in the general election. He would be very formidable.
oddsox, I'm already thinking about my contrition post if Newt flounders. I'll be a little embarrassed.
GerryGreene, I just threw out some of my holey underwear the other day. Oops, you said "holy", not "holey". Never mind.
Patrick Frank, if sanity were a criterion for electability, Huntsman would be leading the pack.
However I suspect you may be mistaken about Newt being the nominee. He'll probably be torn apart one way or another and he might turn this into a mudslinging match or an absurd satire passing off as "politics," but I suspect he will probably be shot down before it is done. However I didn't expect him to do nearly this well. My best guess is that Romney will be the nominee and there will be at least one major third party candidate from the right wing. It is going to be insane and you might hear more about the history of Mormonism although the best material won't be from the Main Stream Media.
That's Romney's problem. I'd agree with the Obama administration that Gingrich is a better candidate to run against. I don't really expect to hear "Ladies and Gentlemen, President Newt Gingrich and the Third Lady."
Sarah Palin is coming back !
Moderates flock to Mitt but he won't get the nomination cuz he's a mormon, and his state's health care plan duplicates Obamacare.
Perry and Paul won't last much longer...they're out of touch with the average American households and neither do well with support from latino and black voter communities.
baltimore, I'm not sure when we'll have a woman president. Remember, most of those Evangelicals will not allow a woman pastor, so they aren't likely to go for a woman president either.
zacherytaylor, I don't think the nation as a whole would vote down Romney if he gets the nomination due to his Mormonism. Those who would vote against a Mormon in primaries would probably vote for him in the general election if their only other choice is Obama. I also agree with you that it is too simplistic to say anti-Mormon sentiment is strictly due to prejudice.
Jimmy Zuma, don't be so sure the Obama folks aren't concerned about Newt's sudden rise.
John boyle, nothing would make the Obama team happier than a Palin comeback!
bikepsychobabble, I don't think the "Easy" button is going to get pushed. Unless it's Palin!
odette, I can't imagine the GOP would make the same mistake that they made last time around. But if they do, it would be good for Obama.
Belinda, I think hard-core conservatives control the GOP, hence Newt.
The American entertainment media is the ultimate "decider" of American Presidential elections. Which nominee is more entertaining? Eye of Newt? Or Mitt Romney?
U decide.
podiatrist, I think your post is a nice accompaniment to this one.
Tom Magstadt, if he's going to crash, it must be some real doozies in his closet since we know about so much already, and he's still polling well.
doloresflores, you may be right. He is certainly entertaining, in a stomach-churning kind of way.
MOMSACOMIC, you've written a lot, but I'll focus on the last sentence. A sense of community, of shared values, is a laudable goal, but Newt has done a lot in his career to tear that concept apart. His entire rise to political prominence was driven in large part on mean-spirited divisive character assassination and demagoguery. Sadly, many Americans seem to share his values in that regard, or at least overlook them.
RATED
With the current line up, all Obama has to do is breathe and he's got another 4.
Doug Socks, I'd be cautious predicting an easy ride for Obama, especially if the economy stays stagnant. His support among many liberals is weak, although if Gingrich is the GOP nominee they may come back into the fold. I really think many underestimate Gingrich's ability to get a big conservative turnout, like Bush did in 2004, and just like Obama did with progressives last time around.
Mumbletypeg, you learn something every day!
lefty, it would be a race that will be long and ugly.