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old new lefty

old new lefty
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alienation, discontent
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September 16
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CEO
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Making trouble whenever possible
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virgin novelist, middle school teacher for the morally handicapped, government bureaucrat, most famous unknown photographer in LA, PhD dropout, coat hanger sorter, presidential campaign worker, sewer worker, and retired guy -- but not in that order.

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MAY 10, 2012 5:46AM

Odds & Ends

Rate: 8 Flag

Nothing much big happening this week.  Just piddly little stuff.  So, I'm going to draw some numbers out of the hat and give you their run down.

BAD ECONOMY

Surprise, surprise, surprise.  The current period is entering a little late, but more or less exactly where I thought it would be.  Remember, I originally predicted an up move until March, followed by a downward trend lasting roughly to the election.  I've now revised my estimates, thinking that a less intense downturn will bottom out by the beginning of August or the middle of July.

 This is due to Europe and China more than anything.  US numbers have been fairly good. But we depend on the fuel of Europe and China to run our engine, and we'll all be running on a thin mixture until then.

 THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

Wake me when it's over.  Actually until the conventions, don't waste my time.

EUROPE

There is much yelling, screaming, and flapping of hands currently going on around Europe now, and some of it is even deserved.  However, expect the European Central Bank and the EFSB to pull another rabbit out of the hat.  Somehow. Some time in July.

CHINA

I told you so about this one, too.  Don't think for a moment that this kerfuffle about some blind lawyer also isn't a shadow play being duked out by competing factions of the Chinese Politburo.

HISTORICAL CYCLES

If I were an Oxbridge don, I'd write a few volumes on the time period between the late 1500s (I'm thinking late Renaissance), and the Age of Reason (circa 1703).  The 1600s were marked by climate change, revolutions, and a conservative reaction.

I think technology compresses time enormously, and so I see a parallel situation between the 1960s, where we are now, and some future Age of Reason somewhere down the road.  Probably after I'm dead.

 

 

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Reason is an affliction of human individuals. It's rare for it to become contagious amongst more that a few susceptible individuals and of course human societies quickly recognize this frightful disease and immediately imprison and execute sufferers to prevent it from becoming widespread. This remedy has been remarkably efficacious throughout human history.
How right you are! As Ed McMahon might say.
More End's than Odd's I'd say Lefty. Slow news day? You bet, I'm doing Obama letters. How low can you go?
Reason? What's that?
Lefty, reason went out the door a long time ago. Sounds like you are beginning to get tired of all this, just like me.
I'm personally waiting for the RNC I hope it turns into a real free for all. Not because I'm inherently evil, but because I want the people to be woken up. Only if it turns into a circus, will the American people finally wake up!
Reason as a disease... dis-ease? Hmmmm???
No one wants to know Lefty.
Nothing.
So why apply reason to anything??
Answering the hard questions is something that is not easy, for then the truth begins to seep in and so does reality.
No one wants to know Lefty.
Nothing.
So why apply reason to anything??
Answering the hard questions is something that is not easy, for then the truth begins to seep in and so does reality.
You're pretty sanguine about Greece. There's a strong chance they'll leave the Euro with adverse consequences careening all over the world.
I am a Camford don, and I'm too busy explaining the intricacies rhyme and meter, literary allusions and the meaning of Eighteenth Century English poets to be bothered with anything so mundane as history. If you look in the dictionary under cloistered, you'll find my picture. If you are so gauche (heavens, I was forced to use a French word!) as to desire my views on anything so disgusting as politics or economics, you merely have to avail yourself of the opinions of any of the numerous grayheads that mysteriously appear and disappear here on Open Salon. Cheerio.
I recently typed, don't recall which missive off the top of my head, that the Dark Ages are similar to what we have now in the following sense. The World as Europeans knew it then was resource constrained to Europe. Growth led only to crowding and resource depletion. There was no easy way, or place, out. Well, we've (the Planet) been there for about 100 years. 1920 had about 2 billion. We're above 7 billion, and rocketing skyward.

As McElhone used to say: "the world is not linear". The problem with most stat folks, especially the finance idiots, is that they're more than content to extrapolate from the near past into the distant future. While that was feasible when we had new, fertile continents to exploit, this ain't Kansas anymore.
RE: anyone speaking about another Age of Reason. It all sounds pretty unreasonable to me.

Mission -- RE: the truth. You know what Jack Nicholson said in A FEW GOOD MEN. The truth? You can't handle the truth. And neither can anyone else. But to follow up on my last post, I expect that although Occupy may be in a quiescent period right now, it's only waiting for some kind of outside catalyst to reactivate again with a vengeance. Wisconsin? A new major downturn? Who knows?

Abrawang: I am somewhat sanguine about the Greek debt situation. In listening to a US ambassador to Greece, he said that he ultimately expected one or the other discredited parties that formed old majorities to eventually reform new coalitions, and until then, there will be uncertainty but no default from Greece.

Nouriel Roubini expects that if the euro is to dissolve, it will be within a 2-3 year period. The Financial Times indicates that four out of five scenarios for the euro eventually end in disaster. But it's my take that for the time being, the vast majority of Greeks, Spanish, etc. are still committed to the idea of idea of a greater federated Europe and its currency.

Tom & scanner, sometimes I'm a genius. And sometimes, I'm a geniouse. You can figure out which one I was when I posted this brain fart.

RY, as a statistician, you know what happens when you extrapolate current trends into the future when you're at the very top of the curve.
Hell, I thot you did it on purpose -- and I thot it was brilliant, so brilliant I decided to do my own little riff.
The latest new from the BBC is that Greece will hold a new election in June, that they will be asked to leave the Euro and this will cause an immediate downgrade in the credit rating of France, Spain, Ireland and Italy.
I think that Euro and the whole EU were bad ideas. Greeks will go out of Euro, I think. EU will disolve in a few years...

America will go down and down. China and India will go up. Japan? They bwill eventually make better connections with Chinese and rebound. Russians will go up, too. Ghey will hopeful build new and at this time real socialism there.
Dr. Bramhall,

If this is true, then it's a true economic debacle. This is the nightmare that everyone has been fixating on, and is exactly equivalent to the problems that happened economically in 1931 after the Crash of 1929.
Having reviewed the BBC, Financial Times, and discussions with Greek insiders, it appears as if the most likely course for Greece will be that new elections will be called. This represents at least a one month grace period. The Syriza party, which represents the ant-austerity camp is expected to gain representation. However, it appears that they will then enter into a negotiation with the European Central Bank (and Germany) on the terms and conditions of Greek debt. There appears to be a willingness to engage in give and take between both sides, and so a cataclysmic Greek default is regarded both by decisionmakers and the financial community as only a small probability -- a worst case scenario.
I think Greeks will manage a minority government. Their politicians are too much afraid of new elections. And after so short time, would it help?

After a few months, if minority governments have collapsed, then maybe new elections?

Germans are now getting enough of Greeks and they will eventually be happy if Greks will go out of euro currency. For Greeks it would be best to forget euro.

Chinese are willing to give loans to at lest to Spanish, maybe even to Greeks, but Europeans are too much afraid to accept it. And it isn't probably so good idea to go to the way of Americans.

Eventually the economic system would collapse if all the rest industrial nations would start borrowing from Chinese? I think that the real cure would be to start consuming less.
I agree with everything you have to say, Vannu. One of the wild cards is the economy overall. Because long term, the world economy is perilous. I love the global warming deniers who say, "Climate change is just a natural occurence in the history of the planet."

And then I say, "Yes, but there were never 7,000,0000,000 million people (going on 9B. But there's this little problem called 'civilization,' and the disposal problem of what do you do with the 95% die off if nothing is done by 2100?"

Another funny joke is the conservative BS that says, "Well Smarty Pants, did you know that in the 1970s, scientists said that they projected global cooling, so what do you retard intellectual secular humanist scum know about science."

And then I say, " You may be right about that global cooling thing in the 1970s. Turns out the scientists picked up the side effects of all that nuclear testing that'd been done since 1945. Did you know that WW III cures global warming in a heartbeat? Works every time! And that's one of the scenarios that could occur when the species homo sapiens bumps up too far above the resource celing."

I clue them in on R.J.Reynolds/Exxon propaganda. But the conservatives are still afraid to talk bad against their butt buddies. And this I don't understand.
I'm inclined to go with the bookmakers on Greece. Britain's two largest bookies (William Hill and Ladbrooke's) suspended betting on Greece exiting the Euro on May 10th. The odds that day were 4 to 1. They felt it was far safer to suspend betting than to keep cutting the odds: http://news.yahoo.com/uk-bookmakers-suspend-betting-greek-euro-exit-124203207--business.html
You wrote: "Climate change is just a natural occurence in the history of the planet."

I think that the common talk of 'the human caused global warming' is just rubbish American politics. It has quite little to do with the science.

Please read first Lindzen's good old article
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv15n2/reg15n2g.html

And then start reading Roy Spencer's blog:

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

(Wikipedia's articles about this issue are far from the truth or reality. )
Reason......as in, making credible sense of what one is experiencing.....
Not exactly on epidemic status nowadays, is it?
;)
r