Hannu Virtanen

Hannu Virtanen
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OCTOBER 1, 2009 8:43AM

From Iran to the Nuclear Free World?

Rate: 2 Flag

People of Iran have got the right to live in peace.  All people of the world have got that right. The war against Iran should be avoided.

We know little what has really happened and is now happening there in Iran. The thing is that we cannot trust on any western news agency about Iran. They are purposefully creating the atmosphere that Iran is such a bad place and their leaders are just madmen so that the common public in 'the west' would accept even a nuclear war against Iran. We have seen already what kind of disinformation American secret agencies and news corporations created about Iraq. Why wouldn't they do the same with Iran?

It is clear and sure that CIA has been meddling in Iran. Bush' administration had a special budged for doing operations inside Iran.  I think that even some English translations of Ahmadinejad's speeches might have been made according to CIA interests. The mistakes with the translations were like if they were purposefully made to harm Iran's interests. I mean the famous speech, when it was told to the American public that Ahmadinejad threated 'to wipe Israel from the map'. Of course he never said so.

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It seems that we need better diplomacies than the present American, European or Russian diplomacies to solve the crises. Why should Americans and/or Russians or other big powers have the right to decide themselves if Iran should be attacked? The whole world's people are involved. Maybe somebody else should now step in. These negotiations have been going on and on already years and years. Evidently the negotiators are focusing on wrong viewpoints, because there is no solution yet.

My suggestion before the attack against Iraq was to send there the successful negotiator, Ahtisaari from Finland to lead discussions between the United States of America and Iraq. He told later in a meeting that he was as well formally asked to do it. But it was too late. America had already decided to start the war. Ahtisaari could be helpful again now.

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It is clear that at least Americans are preparing their public for the possibility that the war would start. So the first thing to do is to avoid the decision to start the war after the present ongoing negotitions. Nowadays the preparations to get a war started will take a few months, even if the American troops are there almost ready. If the war would start during this year, the decision would be made about this time.

My viewpoint is that you cannot get success by threatening Iran with sanctions or with wars. I think that you cannot destroy by force Iran's nuclear facilities without using nuclear weapons or without occupying most the country. They are well guarded and deep underground.

Evidently Russians and Americans just a few weeks ago made some kind of agreement about the war possibility, because Americans decided to remove their planned missile system in Europe against Russia. What they have agreed I don't know. Israel news told that Russia had in return promised not to sell their advanced S-300 air defense missiles to Iran. If this means that Russia has given 'a green light' to attack Iran I don't really know, but I don't believe that. Even if they have given 'a green' light they might be playing with double cards. To make America and Israel suffer really heavy losses, if they would attack.

I'm sure that everybody is still trying to avoid the war. The war would be very risky.

One idea, which might lead into a solution would be opening now the secrecy of Israel's nuclear weapons. Iran's leaders are probably thinking that they have got rights for regional nuclear weapons, because Israel is believed to have them. If Iran would be assured that Israel would show and destroy openly their ready made nuclear warheads (if they have any) they might agree not to build any nuclear warheads themselves?

There are about twenty countries in the world, which can in the technical sense make nuclear weapons quite quickly, if the idea would be politically and ideologically sensible. The technology is not the main problem.

Ahmadinejad has told several times that having nuclear weapons is against the prevailing ideology and religion of Iran. What about Israel? Is it against the religions there to make mass destruction weapons? What about the United States of America? What about Russia?

The people responsible for ongoing negotiations should arrange a meeting in Hiroshima to see there Hiroshima Peace Memorial Museum. They might have new thoughts about the nuclear weapons.

One of the best results we could get out of this struggle would be that Israel besides Iran would cancel their nuclear weapon plans. And even Americans and Russians and other already nuclear armored countries would destroy their nuclear weapons. To have the nuclear free world.

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iran, politics, war, ideology

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The only promise of his election campaign Obama has really kept, has been to continue the wars. He has sent to Afghanistan more troops and extended the war inside Pakistan. There are more than two million refugees from the area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

If Obama will now manage to make a health care reform it would look like he is buying the permission from his fellow citizens to kill more people on the other side of the world with that better health care of those people who voted for him.

One thing to remember is that big American weapon industries backed Obama against McCain during their campaigns. Some big corporations in America maybe realized that they cannot indefinitely get permissions for their wars if they don't give something in return to people who are supporting them in America. So they arranged Obama with his nice face and talks in the power to make the deal?

Just now the situation is dangerous. The administration of Obama is going to do in a few weeks the decision, if they will attack Iran or not.

That war would be critical for the whole world, not only for America, Iran and Israel. It is probably not possible to destroy the nuclear facilities without either using nuclear weapons or trying to occupy almost the whole Iran.

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As I said above, few weeks ago Obama and the leaders of Russia made some kind of deal. The contents we don't know. But we know that Obama promised to cancel the planned missile system in Europe, which Russians and (besides American public) the rest of the world understood to be built against Russia. In return Russians promised that they don't sell to Iran their advanced S-300 air defense missiles. It might mean that Russians have shown a kind of green light to Americans to attack Iran. The better meaning could be that Russians have promised that they will find a way to avoid the war.
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My feeling is that they are trying to hide these much more important things from the general American public behind local discussions about the health care.
Swapping a useless missile shield for better relations with Russia was a smart move by Obama. But the deal between the US and Russia (which is probably more like a very informal understanding) most likely only concerns sanctions against Iran. If Iran is attacked in the near future, it will probably be by the Israelis. But there is no reason for such an attack as of today. As far as anyone knows, the Iranians are years away from producing a bomb - if indeed that is what they are trying to do.

I think Obama should talk to them. He should make the talks as wide-ranging as possible. Iran and the US actually share many interests in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Iran probably aches to normalise their relationship with the West. That might open room for a face-saving deal that would allow them to quietly drop any ambition to get a bomb.

Or not. But if you try diplomacy and fail, at least the Iranians will have shown themselves as the unreasonable party.
Norwonk wrote:

"If Iran is attacked in the near future, it will probably be by the Israelis. But there is no reason for such an attack as of today. As far as anyone knows, the Iranians are years away from producing a bomb - if indeed that is what they are trying to do."

My viewpoint.

I don't think Israel has got means to do it alone.

Both the preparations wars, the war in Lebanon and the second war in Gaza were unsuccessful. During the war in Lebanon Hezbollah showed that they can get advanced missiles in their hands if needed. The attack by the missile into the war ship of Israel proves that they can hit any place in Israel. During the war in Gaza Israel tried with the new bunker buster bombs to destroy tunnels from Egypt so that Hamas could not get such advanced weapons as Hezbollah managed to get. Some tunnels are still there.

If Russians would sell their S-300 air defense missiles to Iran, many Israel airplanes would be lost during any air raid against Iran. Maybe Israel couldn't manage to do any hit by airplanes against Iran's nuclear facilities at all. Israel already tested such an air defense system as installed in Greece. Please see my earlier post about that.

In Gaza we have already seen that the new bunker buster bombs Israel has got, are not very effective.

The above means means that Israel would need missiles and probably nuclear warheads to fight against Iran successfully.

Iran has already got such missiles, which can hit Israel. We have seen that Hezbollah can get them, too. So Iran would hit back with conventional or with nuclear warheads, if Israel would start any war, even nuclear war against them. Only Americans can prevent them from doing it. And even they can do it only by threatening to destroy the most part of Iran - with nuclear weapons. And the threat from Israel's side is probably to use nuclear warheads, too.

My viewpoint is that Iran could from the technical viewpoint have made their nuclear weapons already years ago. Many countries, including Sweden and Finland, maybe even Norway could make them quite quickly, if it were only the question of the technology.

My opinion is that if Iran would again be threatened with war, they would probably quite quickly produce nuclear weapons.

The whole thing looks very strange. It is not Iran's advantage to get into this situation. Who gave such advices to Ahmadinejad so that they are now in this situation? And why?
Hannu, You offer up interesting opinions. I haven't much knowledge in this , but one thing I would say with 100% certainty, we cannot and should not believe the politicians and the media who backs them. There is too much deceit, too many lies.
Rated
John Farnham: thank you for your comment.

I agree with you that Russians have been in charge to prevent Americans to attack. I think that with their big war games a few years back they prevented Israel and America already once from starting the war at that time.

Now it might be the case that Obama is again planning for something new. But as far as I understand the situation Obama's administration has again started meddling inside Iran, not planning to start a war, at least not just now.
The latest news is that Iran has asked Brazil to intervene as a mediator to facilitate the transfer of Iranian nuclear material to France and Russia for reprocessing. This should be seen as very positive news. We hope the White House accepts this.
old new lefty:

Thank you for your comment. I hope that the new idea using Brazil as the mediator would work somehow.

In average the whole thing seems to be going worse and worse. In my opinion the only real solution would be to start talking about Israel's nuclear weapons, too.

The reason, why they are worried about Iran's possible nuclear weapons ambitions I don't understand. Even if Iran for some insane reason acquired nuclear weapons they surely wouldn't use them against anybody. It would be suicidal.

Probably in Israel they are not in reality worried about Iran's nuclear programs, but just want to keep their own power superiority in the area?