In case you missed that, just like in the old days, Russian TU-95, Da Bear Bomber, nuclear capable, flew over Japanese territory this week.

 According to the ministry, a total of five Russian planes, including two Tu-95 Bear strategic bombers, two Su-24 Fencer reconnaissance planes and an A-50 M… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. 

That is the essence of a nuclear deterrence relationship, that one would be willing to trade cities with the enemy, in the case of deterrence on the Korean Peninsula from an American perspective, to trade  L.A. for Seoul, i.e run the risk of defending the South Koreans to… Read full post »

That's the long and short of it, that supporting Iran, Syria, and North Korea is perceived by Russia and China as in the end increasing their power, power of course with respect to recent America dominance of the international system.

That in the end Russia and China support Syria, Iran and… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Water Mondale once declared "anyone who claims to be an expert on North Korea is either a liar or a fool." 

At the risk of being accused of both, we shall proceed to use 25 years of fairly steady observation of the NORKs to assess whether they test,… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever.

The most fundamental thing a government does is protect the life of its citizens, as to why it's not unreasonable to give pause when the government kills one it's citizens, wherever they may be, if the circumstances matter too.

Charles Krauthammer was right that the people sto… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. 

It was bound to be the case that drone strikes would run a certain course, especially because of course Republicans are understandably bitter about Democrats bashing Bush for doing what he thought was required to protect the country, which obviously Obama came to realize was d… Read full post »

It would seem like it is, and is not, a gambit, "is" being Secretary Panetta's decision to not deploy an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf because of budgetary constraints.

It would seem something of a gambit, because if he thought it was important enough, he could hack other expenses to… Read full post »

The Navy delayed deploying a carrier today to the Persian Gulf, ostensibly on budgetary grounds, due to the "Sequester" still looming over the Department of Defense.

There will now only be one carrier in the Gulf on station, although carriers can get there in about two weeks, assuming transit through… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

As to legalities, it was predictable that the surface reaction to the Memo outlining conditions under which a drone strike could be authorized on American citizens would be poor.

It is not a trivial thing in a Constitutional Republic to have the government lawfully able to kill citi… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

That could be in quotes of course, if it would have fit, per the North Korean video showing New York in flames, although if you watch the video, you could put a much more nuanced construction on that if you wanted to also.

More on the video later,… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. And James Rosen of Fox, a college fraternity brother it's nice to see on Fox, especially on O'Reilly sometimes, "Rosen!" just like we used to say, and who wrote a very important book about the Watergate era for any scholar, not to mention a busy reporter. He also… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

It actually was a clever, stylish signal from the North Koreans as to their theory of deterrence at the least, compellence at the most, the latter of course being a "cosmic gamble with potentially awesome consequences."

The signal of course was to simulate nuking New York in what… Read full post »

V Oksana, y por usual, MEB. Rassia domoi. 

Before considering Putin's Boyz II Men concert tomorrow, supposedly to boost Russian fertility, a reflection on the nature of Russia is in order.

Russia reminds one of a proverb William Bennett's The Book of Virtues, in fact a Russian proverb.

A peasant… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever. And a unhappy looking Space Monkey named Pishgam, who may or may not be a unwitting spy. More on that later.

RV stands for re-entry vehicle for spacecraft, both the nice capsule of the Apollo that came back from the Moon, and the not so nice ones, the… Read full post »

The consequences of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear programs can't be evaded, just managed should it come to that, not unlikely, like it or not.
As to the consequences, Iran may well try to shut the Straits of Hormuz. Fortunately, that can be managed by placing enough forces in theater, if… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever. And for Rein Taagepera at UCI, who was such a wonderful professor,and just a good egg, like Carol Uhlaner and Bernie Grofman as to expert training in this topic, and many others as well, and always Wayne and Stergios. No hard feelings, as many students benefited from that… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever.

If one likes understanding the North, 38 North at my alma mater JHU-SAIS is a good place to start. 

http://38north.org/ 

Now of course that San Francisco has nothing to do with the Super Bowl, but rather the sending of the Los Angeles Class fast attack submarine San… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever.

Ibn Khaldun is regarded as among the greatest scholars produced by the Islamic world in a secular field, political science.

His analysis is actually very useful far afield from the Islamic world, in particular his notion of al 'asabiyyah, although we shall only apply it to the… Read full post »

 For MEB forever. waladun kullukum bikhair. And a peaceful Syria, insha'allah.

Not just any Muslims of course, as to the jihadist are us, the Have Gun Will Jihad Set that have already become something of a byproduct of the problems bringing the Syrian Civil War to a conclusion.

Long story short,… Read full post »

First, there are the criticisms, which is part of public life, even if Secretary Panetta was correct to point to the future as the main thing.
The Israel lobby remark is not a good reason to object to Hagel, frankly because he merely stated something lots of people have said over the… Read full post »

 For MEB.

It was nice to see the President shoot a clay pigeon, and not hit any bystanders. Shooting has risks for any President. More hoops has risks too, if maybe a lot more reward than skeet, as something humanizing, if one likes basketball more than skeet, but is worried how… Read full post »

That is really the basis of Original Intent, the story of Ulysses at the Mast.

In the Odyssey, Ulysses is leading his men through dangerous straits, where the Sirens call out, luring sailors to deviate from the correct long-run course for short run game, and therefore to their doom.

Ulysses knows… Read full post »

Now war would be the worst case, and it certainly isn't the most likely one either. NORK is for North Korea, the dwarf pet of China, a bad Korean dwarf doggie that likes to bark too much.

More than likely, this is just some sort of stress test, something the NORKs… Read full post »

 For MEB, forever. And Yonathan, Alhamdulillah. 

I sat once on a train in Boston, coming home from Harvard after class and then writing, in much better economic times, after having written a piece about the Middle East almost surely not super popular with some Israelis, when a man sat next… Read full post »