For MEB, forever.

When the U.S. Intelligence Community stated that it had evidence that chemical weapons had been used, many of the opponents of Western intervention argued that perhaps it was actually the rebels that did that, a "false flag."

That "rebel false flag" tack is a dangerous argument to m… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

The first policy consideration is to remember that if there is a Russian client state in trouble, that is trouble potentially, if Standard Insurance is a good company, if of course, you'd rather not find out how good either.

Of course, just because Russia is unhappy doesn't mean… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

This makes no claim as to whether destroying Syrian WMD is a good idea or not, and merely looks at the means consideration, which however usually ought to influence what ends one pursues, as if you don't like the demands of the means, that is important feedback on… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Japan's new Abe government is making some waves as to its policies relating to the nature of Japan, policies that are important to U.S. interests, especially if not exclusively in the case of the Republic of Korea.

Taking a longer view of Japanese history is important in that… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

That is becoming something of an issue for the Obama Administration, since it laid out the use of WMD as a "red line," dangerously close in language to that used by Netanyahu as to credibility with Israel on Iran, in terms of independent Israeli actions that might, or… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

When you look at the state of things as of late April 2013, the Obama Administration has some fairly serious issues developing in Syria, if that has to be seen in broader context, namely Russo-Chinese relations across the Eurasian landmass with Syria, Iran, and North Korea, as well… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

It was an unplanned walk, if good to clear the head, there being a purpose unto everything if you but see it.

I had done a good bit of consulting with a research institute that was a curious hybrid, unclear about many things as to impact, if it… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Note, the biggest limitation of game theory is its assumption of mutually intelligible rationality. Cultural boundaries make that assumption problematic, as does the tunnel vision that can come with high stress physical risks that seemed remote, but no longer are so remote.

As to ga… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. Happy Good Friday,

Note, hopefully Jong Un just wants to show Brilliant General is large and in charge, and maybe get some protein biscuits for North Koreans.

Doing some diplomatic deal along those lines would be ideal, in return of course for gradual current de-escaltion and gradua… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

There have always been two risks dealing with North Korea, and that has always been true.

The first risk is that you show weakness, and unintentionally induce the North into thinking that it can attack the ROK safely, if at the same time, trying to bargain is always… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

In modern banking systems, banks do not keep 100 per cent of their deposits on hand, so they can lend them, a property that dates to banks origins with goldsmiths in medieval Europe.

People wanted a safe place to hold their Gold, and so got receipts for their… Read full post »

For MEB.

Some horse has to finish dead last at Ascot.

Boris Berozovsky was a controversial figure in Russian politics, found dead in London today.

Russians they say often miss Russia when overseas, and their state often misses them too.

Coming here to bury Boris the Spider, not praise him,… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. And KJ.

Of course, since KJ is half-Armenian, that right there is of course why neo-Ottomanism will always trigger mixed feelings in some, even as Ukrainians like friend N as I recall feel differently towards the Russia that historically speaking had some things in common with… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

For those who's life often has felt like the poem Ken Kesey known by almost everyone for One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, and not so much for the rest, used as the basis for the title of his second novel, seeing Bill Battle appointed Athletic Director of… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Some people always seem to want things to collapse, usually because they have some theory of how that will make for an alternate universe in which they will be happier.

Rarely does that work out for very many people, as by defintion, large discontinous changes aren't predictable.

Pe… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Cyprus is much in the news lately, although not as much as when Turkey and Greece fought a war over it, an unlovely affair, with much ethnic-cleansing, if all wars have their cleansing types, "Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war!"

At least that isn't happening,… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

The theory of games is just an analytical tool, if one used in effect universally, consciously or not, in terms of strategy.

A response function in game theory is the estimation of all Players of what one Player, in this case Iran, will find as its "optimal response" to… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Shroomberg Newswire

The Vatican released a brief statement today from new Pope Francis;

"First, if you call me Francis, I'll kill you."

"Second, now of course if you ask, "Does the Pope root for Notre Dame?" you have to say, "Does a bear ..."

"However, I must say,… Read full post »

For MEB, forever. And Stergios Skaperdas, always a gentleman, and scholar.

Contest functions are an economic notion about how the probability of victory in a contest is a "noisy" function of effort, but interacting of course with efforts of other Players, if team unity is important too.

See this pape… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/Game_Theory/coal.pdf

The Nucleolous is at the end, the Core and Shapely Value of course being know better, and all these have their place as weapons, if N-Person Non-Cooperative Games do too, although communication among the Players and especially Coali… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

What is curious about the shift is that it was widely reported by Israeli sources, e.g. Haaretz, a "paper of record," and trial balloons, that Jewish Home was not going to be part of the Coalition, because of private disputes.

Of course, part of the point of trial… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

What's the matter Danny? Something you don't like?
McKnight: No Spectre gunships, daylight instead of night, late afternoon when they're all fucked up on Khat, only part of the city Aidid can mount a serious counter-attack on short notice...
[chuckles]
McKnight: What's not to like?… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

Multipolarity looks different, and like it or not, our divisions Here led us back to multipolarity There, if that was almost certainly inevitable.

Every dog has its heyday, and some dogs come back, like Russia, and we remain the Big Dog, just not quite like... before.

The U.S.… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

The author had students who fought there, knew other people who did too, and it's not an intellectual abstraction ever, as like a Colonel told him once "Have you seen a 23 year old come to you after a second tour crying about his wife leaving with two… Read full post »

For MEB, forever.

The argument made by the author, possibly as to being an "Atlanticist," is that the European integration project is in American long run interests, a post-modern Realpolitik, even as it makes Europe more powerful.

That is because it balances Russian power at lower cost than the conv… Read full post »